I was pretty happy I was wrong last week picking against Iowa. The game proved Michigan's offense can put up big numbers on Iowa. It also proved Iowa can take full advantage of takeaways. I don't think there is a need to talk much about the game last week. That is history and the Badger game is the current. I won't lie this game is going to be ugly. Both have a solid defense and the offenses are run heavy. If you're looking for a shootout, flip over to a Pac-10 game. The Hawks come back home and should be ready for a dog fight.
I haven't seen a whole lot of the Badgers this season. From what I have seen, they are a great running team and rely heavily on John Clay and James White. They combine for over 1,300 yards and we are only halfway through the season. The good thing is this run heavy offense plays into the hands of Iowa. Wisconsin isn't the high powered spread offense like Michigan was. Iowa can stack the box with 8 and play physical on the d-line. Last week, you had to worry about Robinson, until he got hurt, taking off for the big run. This week, it's all about the backs so you can come right at the huge Badger offensive line. The stats would show Iowa has been dominating Wisconsin the last few times they took the trip to Iowa City. Wisconsin is averaging 12.5 points per game in Iowa City. The only nervous thing I can say about the Badgers is if they start gaining 4 or 5 yards a carry, the play action comes into play. QB Scott Tolzien is completing 70.9% of his passes, but with only 7 touchdowns and 3 ints. Iowa's defense has 9 ints, thanks Michigan, and 4 fumbles for the season. The need for a turnover is huge. They can stack the box, keep the average carry to 2 or 3 and force Tolzien to beat them. I love the Hawks chances.
The exact same could be said for the Wisconsin defense. Stanzi has shown he has been much smarter with the ball than previous years. I don't know if I will call him the Manzi as our Michigan blogger Chris said when he broke down the Michigan side of things. I do need to give Stanzi more props and give him some love. The kid worked hard in the off season and its paid off. 145 attempts, 13 touchdowns and only 2 ints is a stat line every head coach would take by mid-season. Even so, the Badgers don't want Robinson going off on them. Adam is going to get the bulk of the carries (Who is left?). If Wisconsin can wear Robinson down and make Stanzi beat them, they have a chance. Albeit a slight one. I went back and looked at the stats from Wisconsin's last loss, which was Michigan State a few weeks ago. A few things stuck out to me.
One, Sparti was 50% on 3rd down conversions, 9 out of 18. Iowa needs to duplicate that and even improve. Michigan State was down early, withstood the early deficit and came back to take the lead by ten, 20-10, at halftime. Again, Iowa needs to do the same. A halftime lead by 2 scores will make Wisconsin get out of their rhythm. They will be forced to pass the ball. Against Mich. St. Tolzien was 11-25, way below his average percentage, and he had to play catch up. Iowa reminds me a lot of Michigan State and that's why I chose to compare the two for how to beat Wisconsin. The Spartans showed the recipe to beat the Badgers. Can Iowa find away to stir the pot the same way?
I'm really looking forward to this game and see how Wisconsin responds to such a huge win over the Buckeyes. They are in for a let down and traveling to Kinnick, a top 10 tough place to play, is just the way Iowa will like it. I called this in my Iowa preview. However, I thought the Badgers would be reeling from a Ohio St. hurting. I was wrong on that. Iowa played a tough game last week and found the way to victory. The Badgers fall into the trap and Iowa gets another conference victory. 24-10.
J Call
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