I was pretty happy I was wrong last week picking against Iowa. The game proved Michigan's offense can put up big numbers on Iowa. It also proved Iowa can take full advantage of takeaways. I don't think there is a need to talk much about the game last week. That is history and the Badger game is the current. I won't lie this game is going to be ugly. Both have a solid defense and the offenses are run heavy. If you're looking for a shootout, flip over to a Pac-10 game. The Hawks come back home and should be ready for a dog fight.
I haven't seen a whole lot of the Badgers this season. From what I have seen, they are a great running team and rely heavily on John Clay and James White. They combine for over 1,300 yards and we are only halfway through the season. The good thing is this run heavy offense plays into the hands of Iowa. Wisconsin isn't the high powered spread offense like Michigan was. Iowa can stack the box with 8 and play physical on the d-line. Last week, you had to worry about Robinson, until he got hurt, taking off for the big run. This week, it's all about the backs so you can come right at the huge Badger offensive line. The stats would show Iowa has been dominating Wisconsin the last few times they took the trip to Iowa City. Wisconsin is averaging 12.5 points per game in Iowa City. The only nervous thing I can say about the Badgers is if they start gaining 4 or 5 yards a carry, the play action comes into play. QB Scott Tolzien is completing 70.9% of his passes, but with only 7 touchdowns and 3 ints. Iowa's defense has 9 ints, thanks Michigan, and 4 fumbles for the season. The need for a turnover is huge. They can stack the box, keep the average carry to 2 or 3 and force Tolzien to beat them. I love the Hawks chances.
The exact same could be said for the Wisconsin defense. Stanzi has shown he has been much smarter with the ball than previous years. I don't know if I will call him the Manzi as our Michigan blogger Chris said when he broke down the Michigan side of things. I do need to give Stanzi more props and give him some love. The kid worked hard in the off season and its paid off. 145 attempts, 13 touchdowns and only 2 ints is a stat line every head coach would take by mid-season. Even so, the Badgers don't want Robinson going off on them. Adam is going to get the bulk of the carries (Who is left?). If Wisconsin can wear Robinson down and make Stanzi beat them, they have a chance. Albeit a slight one. I went back and looked at the stats from Wisconsin's last loss, which was Michigan State a few weeks ago. A few things stuck out to me.
One, Sparti was 50% on 3rd down conversions, 9 out of 18. Iowa needs to duplicate that and even improve. Michigan State was down early, withstood the early deficit and came back to take the lead by ten, 20-10, at halftime. Again, Iowa needs to do the same. A halftime lead by 2 scores will make Wisconsin get out of their rhythm. They will be forced to pass the ball. Against Mich. St. Tolzien was 11-25, way below his average percentage, and he had to play catch up. Iowa reminds me a lot of Michigan State and that's why I chose to compare the two for how to beat Wisconsin. The Spartans showed the recipe to beat the Badgers. Can Iowa find away to stir the pot the same way?
I'm really looking forward to this game and see how Wisconsin responds to such a huge win over the Buckeyes. They are in for a let down and traveling to Kinnick, a top 10 tough place to play, is just the way Iowa will like it. I called this in my Iowa preview. However, I thought the Badgers would be reeling from a Ohio St. hurting. I was wrong on that. Iowa played a tough game last week and found the way to victory. The Badgers fall into the trap and Iowa gets another conference victory. 24-10.
J Call
Showing posts with label Big Ten. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big Ten. Show all posts
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Hawkeyes and Wolverines
Iowa has rebounded nicely since losing in the desert with wins over Ball State and Penn State. The latter was against a young inexperienced QB and the team almost shut him down. The same young quarterback managed to reach over 300 total yards of offense against this strong defense. Iowa takes a trip to the big house and against the most explosive player in college. You can talk and talk about players and break down this game anyway you want. I believe it comes down to 2 things.
Since I haven't watched much of Michigan football and don't care to see all that much. I reached out to a Wolverine buddy of mine. Lets see what he had to say the most important thing is for Michigan:
"Well the most important thing for the Michigan Iowa game is obviously how well Denard Robinson will play against the tough Iowa defense. After last weeks slump against Michigan state, he needs to rebound and get back to the top of the Heisman picture."
I couldn't agree more. The first important thing is Denard and the Iowa linebackers. You can't spy Denard, he will run right past them. But what alternatives do they have? This offense for Michigan is all about Denard. He's 9 yards away from having a 1,000 and their actual running back has only 286 yards. The Iowa d has to focus on limiting the giant Robinson run. Leading tackler, Jeff Tarpanian is the man to handle Denard. He can't over pursue on one play or get of position on those qb choice runs. Jeff should get some help though. Iowa is being praised as the best front four in the country. Time to show it off. They've certainly done their part so far giving up a measly 10.2 points per game. It won't be squarely on Jeff's shoulders either. The entire linebacking core, Jeremiha Hunter and Tyler Nelsen will need to do their part. You hear it constantly but it holds true for this game in particular, it will be an entire team effort to stop Denard. He's that good. I like their chances if they limit Robinson's explosiveness. I said in the Zona game, Stanzi couldn't throw a pick early and get the crowd involved. Well the defense can't lack and give up a huge run to Denard early. That would set off the large crowd.
The other thing to keep an eye on is Stanzi against the Michigan secondary. I can't say a lot of good things about a secondary giving up over 300 yards a game. Michigan's overall D isn't much better with opponents gaining 450 yards per game. Factor in they haven't played a ranked team, I'm not counting Notre Dame, except "little brother" and it doesn't look good. Soft is an understatement when you look at their stats. Since I don't want this to be a hate fest on the Wolverines, I'll go back to my buddy for something good to say about their defense.
"Our defense is very young and that's what i like the most about them, they are making freshman mistakes this year but they should learn over time."
He's spot on with that analysis. They are young and make mistakes. Next year, they will be much better. With that said, I still don't trust Stanzi. I should trust him, 10 touchdowns, 2 picks and one wasn't even his fault. Ricky is leading the Hawkeye passing attack to 32nd overall. He's the leader of the team. I still go back to the Arizona game. The loss was on the road in a tough environment. He lead them back and they should have had the lead. Shoulda and woulda doesn't count in football.
The situation Saturday seems to be particularly the same as the game in Arizona. Michigan's enormous crowd celebrating homecoming and hungry for revenge after a loss last week. The Big House practically rattling with the screams and stomps. Denard ready to show last week was a fluke, play like a Heisman candidate and prove his worth against a great defense. All this sounds like a formula for an upset. The Wolverine's defense won't have to work to hard if Stanzi gives them the ball a few times. I'm going against the Hawkeyes until they win a true road test. Wolverines win 30-24.
J Call
Since I haven't watched much of Michigan football and don't care to see all that much. I reached out to a Wolverine buddy of mine. Lets see what he had to say the most important thing is for Michigan:
"Well the most important thing for the Michigan Iowa game is obviously how well Denard Robinson will play against the tough Iowa defense. After last weeks slump against Michigan state, he needs to rebound and get back to the top of the Heisman picture."
I couldn't agree more. The first important thing is Denard and the Iowa linebackers. You can't spy Denard, he will run right past them. But what alternatives do they have? This offense for Michigan is all about Denard. He's 9 yards away from having a 1,000 and their actual running back has only 286 yards. The Iowa d has to focus on limiting the giant Robinson run. Leading tackler, Jeff Tarpanian is the man to handle Denard. He can't over pursue on one play or get of position on those qb choice runs. Jeff should get some help though. Iowa is being praised as the best front four in the country. Time to show it off. They've certainly done their part so far giving up a measly 10.2 points per game. It won't be squarely on Jeff's shoulders either. The entire linebacking core, Jeremiha Hunter and Tyler Nelsen will need to do their part. You hear it constantly but it holds true for this game in particular, it will be an entire team effort to stop Denard. He's that good. I like their chances if they limit Robinson's explosiveness. I said in the Zona game, Stanzi couldn't throw a pick early and get the crowd involved. Well the defense can't lack and give up a huge run to Denard early. That would set off the large crowd.
The other thing to keep an eye on is Stanzi against the Michigan secondary. I can't say a lot of good things about a secondary giving up over 300 yards a game. Michigan's overall D isn't much better with opponents gaining 450 yards per game. Factor in they haven't played a ranked team, I'm not counting Notre Dame, except "little brother" and it doesn't look good. Soft is an understatement when you look at their stats. Since I don't want this to be a hate fest on the Wolverines, I'll go back to my buddy for something good to say about their defense.
"Our defense is very young and that's what i like the most about them, they are making freshman mistakes this year but they should learn over time."
He's spot on with that analysis. They are young and make mistakes. Next year, they will be much better. With that said, I still don't trust Stanzi. I should trust him, 10 touchdowns, 2 picks and one wasn't even his fault. Ricky is leading the Hawkeye passing attack to 32nd overall. He's the leader of the team. I still go back to the Arizona game. The loss was on the road in a tough environment. He lead them back and they should have had the lead. Shoulda and woulda doesn't count in football.
The situation Saturday seems to be particularly the same as the game in Arizona. Michigan's enormous crowd celebrating homecoming and hungry for revenge after a loss last week. The Big House practically rattling with the screams and stomps. Denard ready to show last week was a fluke, play like a Heisman candidate and prove his worth against a great defense. All this sounds like a formula for an upset. The Wolverine's defense won't have to work to hard if Stanzi gives them the ball a few times. I'm going against the Hawkeyes until they win a true road test. Wolverines win 30-24.
J Call
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Iowa Hawkeyes Road Test
I admit I was wrong. I thought Iowa State would travel to Iowa City and put up a fight against their in state rival. They didn't bother and should have stayed home. No need to go into much detail. A 35-7 butt kickin' where Ricky Stanzi and Adam Robinson were near perfect and Jewel Hampton was back helping out. The defense was solid holding ISU to 3 yards in the 1st quarter and ISU only got their touchdown because the scrubs were in. No need to say anymore. Let's move on to Arizona.
It's hard for me to break down the Wildcats. I live in the Midwest and frankly I don't see much Pac-10 unless they are playing a Big 10 or Big 12 team. The matter isn't helped when Arizona has played Toledo and Citadel. What television station covered those games? Fox Sports Tucson or was I suppose to fork over 30 bucks to watch those crappy games on pay-per-view. Seriously, I started looking up Arizona's stats from those two games and I have no idea how to judge them. They've given up only 8 points total in two games. One score was literally given to Toledo with a safety. So yeah, the numbers feel a bit magnified.
The Wildcats traveled to Kinnick last year with close to the same squad on offense this year. Neither QB was good in their contest. Nick Foles ended up with 55 yards passing and a td while sharing time with the ineffective Scott. This year it's all on Foles and so far he's been impressive. Stanzi wasn't much better with 202 yards and a pick 6. The key last year is the same as this year, running backs.
Adam Robinson must duplicate the 100 yard performance to keep the ball away from the 2 Nicks, Grisby and Foles. Grisby averaged over 6 and a half yards a carry on this defense with Pat Angerer and if he gets double the load, only 11 against Iowa last year, he could control the entire game by himself. Even Ferentz said it was tough to control him last year. Now at home, Iowa will have to double the efforts. Meanwhile, Iowa will have to keep feeding it's two-headed monster of Robinson and Hampton. Iowa had 2 running backs last year with Robinson and Wegher gaining almost 150 yards on 35 carries. Now Hampton is seeing action that Wegher did before. The 3 running backs are important because these defenses are going to get tired.
If your looking for a shootout, forget it. Don't expect either team to come close to 40 points unless your talking total of both teams. Mike Stoops has helped put together a tough defense much like his days as Defensive Coordinator at Oklahoma. Arizona was the 21st defense overall until Nebraska put a beat down on them in their bowl game. With their weak schedule and 4 point average, the Wildcats are easily a top ten defense, actually 2nd in points against. Iowa hasn't had much competition either, opponents are averaging one touchdown against them in their first two games and 8th overall in the country. I expect a low scoring game because both defenses should feel very confident in their play so far.
After what I thought would be a real test with ISU, Iowa may finally have a good game on their hands. In that same breath, so will Arizona. The Wildcat fans are planning a "red out" by wearing all red to the game. Tucson stadium will look like a blood bath than a football arena. Stanzi threw that pick 6 in the 1st quarter in the game against Arizona last year. If he does that again and that ruckus crowd gets into it, an upset could brew. Stanzi has relied on that pivotal ground game and I think we see more the same here. Iowa won't make an early mistake, take the crowd out of it early and momentum will carry them to a close victory. Last year 27-17, this year 24-20.
J Call
It's hard for me to break down the Wildcats. I live in the Midwest and frankly I don't see much Pac-10 unless they are playing a Big 10 or Big 12 team. The matter isn't helped when Arizona has played Toledo and Citadel. What television station covered those games? Fox Sports Tucson or was I suppose to fork over 30 bucks to watch those crappy games on pay-per-view. Seriously, I started looking up Arizona's stats from those two games and I have no idea how to judge them. They've given up only 8 points total in two games. One score was literally given to Toledo with a safety. So yeah, the numbers feel a bit magnified.
The Wildcats traveled to Kinnick last year with close to the same squad on offense this year. Neither QB was good in their contest. Nick Foles ended up with 55 yards passing and a td while sharing time with the ineffective Scott. This year it's all on Foles and so far he's been impressive. Stanzi wasn't much better with 202 yards and a pick 6. The key last year is the same as this year, running backs.
Adam Robinson must duplicate the 100 yard performance to keep the ball away from the 2 Nicks, Grisby and Foles. Grisby averaged over 6 and a half yards a carry on this defense with Pat Angerer and if he gets double the load, only 11 against Iowa last year, he could control the entire game by himself. Even Ferentz said it was tough to control him last year. Now at home, Iowa will have to double the efforts. Meanwhile, Iowa will have to keep feeding it's two-headed monster of Robinson and Hampton. Iowa had 2 running backs last year with Robinson and Wegher gaining almost 150 yards on 35 carries. Now Hampton is seeing action that Wegher did before. The 3 running backs are important because these defenses are going to get tired.
If your looking for a shootout, forget it. Don't expect either team to come close to 40 points unless your talking total of both teams. Mike Stoops has helped put together a tough defense much like his days as Defensive Coordinator at Oklahoma. Arizona was the 21st defense overall until Nebraska put a beat down on them in their bowl game. With their weak schedule and 4 point average, the Wildcats are easily a top ten defense, actually 2nd in points against. Iowa hasn't had much competition either, opponents are averaging one touchdown against them in their first two games and 8th overall in the country. I expect a low scoring game because both defenses should feel very confident in their play so far.
After what I thought would be a real test with ISU, Iowa may finally have a good game on their hands. In that same breath, so will Arizona. The Wildcat fans are planning a "red out" by wearing all red to the game. Tucson stadium will look like a blood bath than a football arena. Stanzi threw that pick 6 in the 1st quarter in the game against Arizona last year. If he does that again and that ruckus crowd gets into it, an upset could brew. Stanzi has relied on that pivotal ground game and I think we see more the same here. Iowa won't make an early mistake, take the crowd out of it early and momentum will carry them to a close victory. Last year 27-17, this year 24-20.
J Call
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